Canadian Election 2025 Liberals hold a 4-point lead

- Media Release, Abacus Data

April 14, 2025

Mark Carney’s favourability continues to rise—now at +20 (48% positive vs. 28% negative)—driving gains not only in vote intention but also in leadership perception.

The Liberals hold a 10-point lead in Ontario and remain dominant in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, while the race remains tight in British Columbia. Even among older Canadians—traditionally a Conservative-leaning group—the Liberals now have a double-digit edge. Carney’s gains are also evident among university-educated voters, and he is narrowing the gap among working-class Canadians.

Carney’s edge extends beyond popularity. He now leads Pierre Poilievre on four key leadership traits that strongly predict vote intention, including “finding common ground,” “standing up to a bully,” “navigating a crisis,” and—most notably—“helping you manage household expenses.” This last point signals a potential shift in issue ownership, as the Liberals gain ground on affordability and cost-of-living concerns—terrain long dominated by the Conservatives.

Interest in this election is also higher than it was in 2021, with nearly 7 in 10 Canadians saying they’re very engaged. Many plan to watch the upcoming leaders’ debates, with expectations especially high for Carney in the English-language event. These next few days may prove pivotal—but for now, the momentum is clearly with the Liberals.