Global Grain Outlook 2024-25

January 13, 2025

Key points from this story:

• Supply and demand core mechanism for pricing
• Weather patterns becoming more volatile
• Ukraine war impacts Eastern European production
• Trump's potential tariffs threaten agricultural trade
• Panama Canal operations may face disruption
• Geopolitical tensions could lead to trade sanctions

With a new year upon us it's rather natural we look ahead to see what the grain and oilseed market outlook for 2024-25 may be. One recent article suggests it will come down to whether big world demand is matched by big supplies - which really is to suggest markets will be back to the core mechanism of supply and demand to determine prices. That of course is almost the default setting of potential grain and oilseed market pricing. If supplies shrink for any reason it typically pressures prices higher as markets are shorted. Over production can create a market glut and prices tumble.

The question headed into 2025 is what sort of production pressures are likely, and then veering from traditional supply and demand influences what outside forces are going to kick the traditional market underpinnings out of whack? Production pressures always start and end with Mother Nature and with global weather patterns clearly in a state of flux – read that as more volatile - guessing what crop conditions may be is at best an educated guess when looking six plus months down the road.