Government of Saskatchewan Releases 2024-25 Mid-Year Report

Media release, Gov’t SK

November 28, 2024

Key points from this story:

• Deficit increases to $743.5M from budget
• Crop insurance claims rise by $385M
• Total revenue forecast up by $275.1M
• Gross debt increases to $35.2B
• Net debt-to-GDP ratio improves to 13.9%
• Saskatchewan had second-fastest growing economy in 2023

The Saskatchewan economy remains strong, but inconsistent weather during the growing season negatively impacted the province's crops and the mid-year financial position. Although weather conditions were good early in the season, very dry conditions in many regions of the province during the summer significantly impacted crop yields and quality, particularly with canola. These fluctuations led to higher crop insurance claims, increasing the Agriculture expense theme by $385 million, or 25.1 per cent, from the 2024-25 budget1.

Deputy Premier and Finance Minister Jim Reiter emphasized the importance of crop insurance in protecting the agriculture sector from circumstances beyond their control. The 2024-25 Mid-Year Report forecasts a deficit of $743.5 million at mid-year, an increase of $470.4 million from budget. Overall, total expense is forecast to increase by $745.5 million, or 3.7 per cent, from budget1.

In addition to increases related to the unfavourable weather conditions on the province's crops, the Protection of Persons and Property expense theme increased $128 million, primarily due to operating pressures in correctional facilities and wildfire response efforts. The Health expense theme also increased $100 million to address service and volume pressures1.

Partially offsetting the expense increase, total revenue is forecast to increase by $275.1 million, or 1.4 per cent, from budget. The largest areas of growth are in the Other Own-Source and Taxation revenue themes. Other Own- Source is forecast to increase by $235.5 million compared to budget due to improvements across this category, including increases in investment and insurance income. Taxation is also forecast to increase by $133 million, primarily due to an increase in corporate income taxes1.

Total gross debt at mid-year is forecast to be $35.2 billion, an increase of $388.5 million from budget, but a $12.3 million decrease from the first quarter. Despite the change in debt, Saskatchewan's net debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to be 13.9 per cent at the end of the 2024-25 fiscal year, an improvement over the budget projection of 14 per cent, and the second-best net debt-to-GDP ratio among all provinces1.

At mid-year, the Saskatchewan economy continues to perform well. Population and employment growth remain strong, while the province also had the second- fastest growing economy in the country in 2023, as measured by growth in real GDP at 2.3 per cent1.